News of the Bank
17 july 2022
Exchange rates: market situation
From the end of June, the US dollar rate crept up: if as of June 29 it was 2.52 rubles per 1 dollar (the rate of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus), then by July 9 it rose to 2.71 rubles. Does this mean that the dollar will continue to rise in price? We are dealing with Dmitry Miksyuk, head of the dealing department at BSB Bank.
Market Review
“There is no need to panic and thoughtlessly change the currency to the Belarusian ruble and vice versa. A similar rise in the price of the dollar was already observed at the end of May, when from a minimum of 2.46 rubles per US dollar, the exchange rate rose to 2.60 rubles in just three days, Dmitry Miksyuk comments on the recent market situation. What did we see after that? The dollar gradually became cheaper throughout June. It is possible that the situation will repeat itself now.”
The growth of the US dollar in Belarus may be triggered by the weakening of the Russian ruble, which has fallen in price by more than 10% since the beginning of July. Since the Russian ruble is half the value of the basket of currencies on the basis of which the value of the Belarusian ruble is calculated, the influence of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian ruble is large and natural.
At the same time, the demand for foreign currency in Belarus is growing. So, for the first time in the last year, in June, individuals bought more currencies than they sold. During the first month of summer, 825.7 million US dollars were bought, 784.3 million were sold. The surge of interest in the currency can be associated with a rather low exchange rate in June. It seems that such price levels are in line with expectations of the level of pent-up demand for the currency.
Currency exchange operations: individuals
According to the National Bank, in the first half of the year, individuals in Belarus bought cash and non-cash currency for USD 4,551.9 million in equivalent, and sold - for USD 4,956.5 million.
Dmitry Miksyuk observes a trend towards a decrease in the margin between the purchase and sale of cash currency, which is associated with some stabilization of the cash currency market. When performing foreign exchange transactions no problems with cash and non-cash currency.
Currency exchange operations: legal entities
“There is an interesting situation with business clients now: residents are buying more currency, and non-residents are selling”, – notes Dmitry Miksyuk.
A similar picture is observed in the report of the National Bank:
- For 6 months of the current year, resident companies purchased currencies for 13,063.4 million US dollars and sold them for 12,424.9 million dollars. Net purchase amounted to 638.5 million US dollars.
- In turn, non-resident companies sell almost 2 times more foreign currency in Belarus than they buy. For the first half of 2022, foreign exchange was purchased for 653.2 million US dollars, sold - for 1317.5 million. Net sales - 664.3 million US dollars.
BCSE and the OTC market: instruments
Our experts on foreign exchange transactions note that most transactions are carried out on the over-the-counter foreign exchange market. If on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange the average daily turnover of currencies in January-June amounted to 61.9 million US dollars in equivalent, then on the over-the-counter foreign exchange market - 264.2 million.
Among the participants in the OTC market are our clients who use the capabilities of BSB Bank's specialized online services. Thus, "Currency Broker Online" allows you to receive up-to-date information about Forex quotes and negotiate individual exchange rates. By the way, the service has an adaptation for mobile devices in the format of the Mobile Broker application.
In addition, we have launched a special electronic trading platform "Currency Broker 2.0". It allows you to track quotes in real time, instantly make currency exchange transactions with the bank and request individual conditions from your personal manager.
Conclusions
Rate fluctuations are a normal phenomenon for the market, so you should not allow panic when the rate rises, because it is the behavior of customers that has a greater influence on its dynamics. To date, the dollar exchange rate has not reached critical values - transactions continue in the standard mode.
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